Tick Tock: Is Iran's Regime Nearing the End?

By Cpl. Preston Reed - USMC website: http://www.marines.mil/_layouts/imagemeta.aspx?image=http://www.marines.mil/unit/11thmeu/PublishingImages/2010/101005-M-2547R-014.jpg, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11749383By Cpl. Preston Reed - USMC website: http://www.marines.mil/_layouts/imagemeta.aspx?image=http://www.marines.mil/unit/11thmeu/PublishingImages/2010/101005-M-2547R-014.jpg, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11749383
By Cpl. Preston Reed – USMC website: http://www.marines.mil/_layouts/imagemeta.aspx?image=http://www.marines.mil/unit/11thmeu/PublishingImages/2010/101005-M-2547R-014.jpg, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11749383

Michael Rubin

Politics, Middle East

Sanctions are taking a toll.

Tick Tock: Is Iran’s Regime Nearing the End?

During the Obama administration, President Hassan Rouhani came to the negotiating table because of economic pressure after the Senate unanimously passed unilateral economic sanctions—a measure the White House initially opposed but then for which it took credit.

Iran and the United States are as close to direct conflict as they have been for three decades, since Operation Praying Mantis in 1988 which was, at the time, the largest surface naval engagement since World War II.

A lot of ink has been spilled and oxygen expended discussing the matter, some of it good and some of it simplistic. Here a few thoughts, informed by being lucky enough to spend close to seven months studying in the Islamic Republic while finishing a doctorate in philosophy on Iranian history. I worked on the Iran desk at the Pentagon during the George W. Bush administration, frequently visit the Persian Gulf, and have followed Iran almost continuously for a quarter century.

(This first appeared in June 2019.)

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